RUSSIA UKRAINE CONFLICT

CONTEXT

Russia Ukraine conflict is being considered as one of the most important events happening in the present-day world affairs. On Feb 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine whereby it had destroyed 74 Ukrainian military facilities, including 11 airbases. During the two countries military confrontation, Russian shelling has killed 40 Ukrainian soldiers and ten civilians. Meanwhile, Ukraine claimed to have killed approximately 50 Russian occupiers but provided no details.

GENESIS OF RUSSIA AND UKRAINE

• Both Russia and Ukraine are having an age-old relation, which can be dated back to 9th century AD, during which there lies no clearcut demarcation of boundary between both Russia as well as Ukraine.
• Countries such as Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus, shared the same culture which can be termed as Slavic culture and Belarus was the centre of culture for those countries.
• Over a period of time, following several fragmentations, devastations created by the Mongolian invasion, the territorial unity got collapsed and the states got divided into different countries. In the case of Ukraine, some territory came under the control of Poland and some under the control of Russia.
• But Russia felt that since they all were having a same lineage from the Slavic culture, they all are culturally one and except on few parts in the modern history, the entire Ukraine was with Russia.

 BUDAPEST MEMORANDUM ON SECURITY ASSURANCES

• 1917 Russian revolution was being followed by the formation of USSR (The Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics) and there, the 2nd largest power after Russia was Ukraine.
• Ukraine sailed with Russia from 1917 till 1991 where the Ukraine was so prosperous, industrially developed and an important centre of all industry.
• Russia always saw Ukraine as a buffer state between the west and Russia in order to have protection from the adversary forces.
• In the year 1954, Crimea was given to Ukraine by the then president of USSR Nikita Khrushchev, though the former has had its own autonomy.
• By the year 1991 –USSR collapsed as a result of Gorbachev’s policy and Ukraine thereby becomes an independent state.
• Ukraine gave all its important arsenal which they had with them earlier to Russia and in return the latter assured former its security and sovereignty, thereby lead to the signing of Budapest memorandum on security assurances.
• Later Ukraine amended its constitution and stated that the entire Crimea is within their purview but Russians felt that Crimea shouldn’t have been given to the Ukraine.

COMPLEXITY IN THE UKRAINIAN POPULATION

• Population of Ukraine consists of 2 major ethnic groups in which 77.8 % of the population are Ukrainians (western part of Ukraine) and 17.3 % of the population are Russians (eastern part of Ukraine)
• Eastern part of Ukraine is closely related to the Russians (Donbas region of Ukraine) as a result of russianizing the entire eastern European part by some of the Russian rulers in its history.
• Donetsk and Luhansk are the 2 important regions in Donbas, which are ethnically belonging to Russia and the people living in this region speaks Russian language.

REASONS FOR THE PRESENT-DAY CONFLICT

1. REJECTION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION TRADE DEAL

• In the year 2013, European union wanted to conclude a trade deal with respect to Ukraine to provide some financial assistance of $828 million to the state of Ukraine for the development of Ukraine.
• But the then president of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovych decided not to accept European union trade deal and instead went ahead with the bailout package of $15 billion proposed by Russia.
• This led to an immediate protest in the state of Ukraine by the majoritarian people which brings out a revolution in the year 2014 known by the name of Ukraine revolution / revolution of dignity/maiden revolution/orange revolution.
• This led to the removal of the then president of Ukraine Victor Yanukovych and he then fled to Russia and seek asylum. Hence new government came to power in Ukraine.
• Russia became unhappy with the revolution and strongly suspects USA behind such protest.

2. LIBERATION OF CRIMEA

• In response to the Ukrainian Revolution, the minorities started fighting against Ukraine and immediately Ukraine armies started suppressing them.
• Russia came in support of the minorities, which led to a conflict between Ukraine and Russian army.
• Russia occupied entire Crimea and the liberation of Crimea thus happened in the aftermath of the dismissal of Victor Yanukovych.
• Russia then conducted plebiscite in which 97% of Crimean people were interested with Russia rather than being with Ukraine.
• But at the same time western countries were not agreed with such a plebiscite.

3. NON-IMPLEMENTATION OF MINSK AGREEMENT

• After the liberation of Crimea, the western countries came together and signed a peace agreement which came to be known by the name MINSK AGREEMENT (MINSK AGREEMENT 1 AND MINSK AGREEMENT 2).
• Front runners of this peace agreement – Ukraine, Russia, Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) where, France and Germany were the initiators of this agreement.
• Unfortunately, both Russia and Ukraine didn’t accept the Minsk agreement because Ukraine didn’t agree to Russia’s proposal of power devolution to the Donbas region.

4. EXPANSION OF THE NATO TO THE EAST

• Ukraine, even after its independence in 1991 repeatedly stated its intention to become a NATO member state as the membership with NATO would significantly increase Ukraine’s international military backing.
• In the year 2008, NATO leaders promised Ukraine that they will accommodate Ukraine into the NATO.
• After 2014, new president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko came into power and who himself was a pro-western president and wanted Ukraine to join the NATO grouping.
• Russia says that NATO had earlier made a promise in post 1991 period that they will not spread their presence to the eastern side.
• Despite such promise, many states after the disintegration of USSR like Hungary, Czech Republic, Bulgaria etc had joined the NATO.

WHY UKRAINE WANTED TO JOIN NATO?

• In 2021 the new president ofUkraine, Volodymyr Zelensky stated their intention to speed up the proposal of joining Ukraine with NATO.
• Ukraine considers its eastern part as a separatist force and fears that they might take the entire Ukraine to Russia.
• Membership would draw Ukraine more firmly toward Europe, making it more likely that Ukraine could join the European Union — another policy goalfor Ukraine.
• Membership would also help the country build a closer relationship with the U.S. Joining the alliance would also pull Ukraine further away from Russia’s sphere of influence.

RUSSIA ‘S ARGUMENT AGAINST UKRAINE’S INTENTION TO JOIN NATO

• Russia does notsupport with the decision of Ukraine to join NATO as the latter serves as a buffer state between Russia and the west in containing the adversaries.
• Russia needed to get an assurance from USA that the Ukraine will not be accepted as a member of NATO forces and also wanted NATO not to get expanded even to Georgia as well.
• The argument of USA was that NATO policy is an ‘open-door policy’ and the interested countries can join the group, therefore NATO is not in a position to give such an assurance to Russia that it will not expand to Georgia.

RUSSIA’S RESPONSE

• Russia concluded a bilateral exercise with Belarus and then amassed huge number of forces in both north Ukraine and eastern Ukraine and it then moved forward and attacked Ukraine from the Donbas region. Russia even recognises both Donetsk and Luhansk as independent regions.

WHY RUSSIA IS SENTIMENTAL ABOUT UKRAINE?

Russia considers Ukrainian people as their cultural brothers since they share the same lineage. Apart from the similarity of belonging to the same shared culture, Ukraine commands a lot of geostrategic significance as well.

• Ukraineis the second most important country after Russia during the USSR years. Ukrainian port cities are important in both economic and military sense, for example – The Ukrainian coastal city of Sevastopol located in the Crimean Peninsula serves as a major naval base for the Russian navy.
• Economically Ukraine is a major manufacturer of ballistic missiles, large transport planes and launch pads for space carriers. In this sense it is a major player in the field of weapons systems.
• Ukraine is also a major producer and exporter of steel, a product vital to the global economy particularly for ship building and the auto industry.
• Ukraine is a major transit point for oil and gas coming from Russia and Central Asia to the EU. Most of the gas and oil pipelines carrying hydrocarbon products to the EU from Russia pass through the country.
• Ukraine is a major agricultural hub. Its flat plains, plateaus and fertile black soil (considered the best in Europe) are good for food production and animal husbandry
• Security threat – The intention of Ukraine to become part of NATO poses serious security threat for Russia as its adversary forces such as the USA will advance further east.

RESPONSE OF THE WESTERN COUNTRIES

• At present, not all the western countries support NATO’s decision to include Ukraine. Some NATO members like France and Germany were of the opinion that it is not the right time to accommodate Ukraine into NATO rather, should consider Russian concerns because Russia is having good trade relations with some of the western countries.

ROLE OF INDIA

• India’s response in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea was that it didn’t stand against Russia and abstained from voting at the UNSC.
• In the present scenario also, India is not supporting either Russia or the USA and instead remaining as a neutral power because, India wants to maintain a balance in relation between both Russia as well as with USA.
• Russia is a close ally of India as the former is –
• The Largest defence supplier to India
• The Balancing force between India and China
• Having an age-old relation both in terms of trade and in defence
• Hence India needs to persuade its ally Russia –
• To Settle the dispute in a way of negotiable peaceful settlement
• To Respect the security aspects on both sides
• To utilise all possible diplomatic channels for settling the dispute
• To Implement the Minsk agreement at the earliest.

CONCLUSION

Some political scholars believe this conflict as the ‘conspiracy of USA ‘as it is in a dire need to sell its arms While others were of the opinion that Russia can’t claim its historical legacy to substantiate the present-day expansion. The best course of action for all the stakeholders is to step back and hold discussions and deliberations, rather than divide the world and return it to the days of the Cold War era.

PRACTICE QUESTION

The security alliances create more security threats rather than protection. Critically examine the above statement in the context of Russia- Ukraine Conflict.(150 Words, 10 Marks)